CMA finds no evidence of fuel crisis profiteering but flags weak competition

The CMA's ongoing scrutiny of fuel markets since the Middle East conflict began has landed on a verdict fleets should note: it has found no evidence of retailers changing pricing strategies to exploit the crisis, and says higher wholesale costs explain most of the rise, but passive pricing by most retailers is sustaining high margins. That distinction matters for anyone modelling fuel costs into future budgets, because the margin element points to a structural problem alongside the wholesale spike.

The regulator has been monitoring petrol and diesel pricing and enforcing the Fuel Finder scheme throughout, with updates in March and August tracking pressures as they emerged. Its parallel heating oil market study, launched in March and concluded on 15 July, found the domestic heating oil market generally competitive, with price rises largely reflecting wholesale costs and suppliers not profiting materially from the crisis, but said households needed stronger protections (CMA). The CMA also wrote directly to the Chancellor setting out its monitoring approach, underlining that this is now a standing watch rather than a one-off intervention (CMA).

Why this matters: if weak competition keeps margins high, don't expect pump prices to fall as fast as wholesale costs once geopolitical tensions ease. Fleets should build sustained fuel-cost pressure into procurement and AFR reviews rather than treating current pricing as an anomaly waiting to unwind.