Van residual forecasts extended to four-year horizon

Four years: that's the outer edge of cap hpi's new residual value horizon for used light commercial vehicles, with forecasts running from twelve months right out to that point in the Future Light Commercial Vehicle Overview. For finance teams sweating over contract lengths on vans and pick-ups, that's a genuinely useful planning window - long enough to price a four-year lease with some confidence, short enough to stay credible.

The figures are quoted in pounds and pegged to cap Average Condition, a standard that assumes the vehicle is mechanically sound, holds a current MOT or needs only routine wear items to pass one, and allows minor repainting but nothing amounting to major body repair. Vans and pick-ups also need a full substantial lining fitted from new to qualify, and while the interior can be dirty and untidy it must not be damaged. Documentation, especially the V5, has to be present and correct. It's a strict enough benchmark that operators running vehicles harder than that should expect real-world disposal values to undershoot the forecast.

Why this matters: Use the Average Condition criteria as an audit checklist against your own defleet vehicles before you rely on these numbers for budgeting - a missing V5 or a cracked dash could be the gap between forecast and actual sale price.