UK new car registrations up 5.4% in October as SMMT warns ZEV Mandate gap will widen
Battery electric cars took 32.0% of October's 152,730 registrations, their highest share this year. But SMMT forecasts a 27.2% BEV share for 2026 against the 33% ZEV Mandate target, with the shortfall more than doubling by 2028, and is pressing the government to cut the targets.
UK new car registrations rose 5.4% to 152,730 in October, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). It was the market's 11th consecutive monthly increase, though SMMT said growth was around half the rate seen across the first 10 months of the year, following a strong September number-plate change.
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations rose 32.7% to take a 32.0% market share, the highest this year. Plug-in hybrid registrations rose 30.1% to a 15.0% share. SMMT attributed the BEV jump to manufacturers pushing registrations closer to the annual mandated target, repeating the pattern of the previous two years.
Fleet registrations rose 5.4% to 89,985, keeping fleet share unchanged at 58.9%. Private demand increased 4.1% to 58,229, a 38.1% share, and business registrations climbed 24.5% to 4,516.
So far this year 503,805 BEVs have been registered, up 30.4% on 2025, giving a year-to-date BEV share of 26.6%.
Mandate gap forecast
SMMT's latest market outlook expects BEV share to reach 27.2% in 2026, against the 33% ZEV Mandate target. It forecasts a 32% share in 2027 against a 38% target, and 37.5% in 2028 against a required 52%. That 2028 gap of 14.5 percentage points would be more than double this year's shortfall.
SMMT said manufacturers have been forced to spend billions on discounts, low and 0% finance, deposit contributions and subsidised charging to push EV sales beyond underlying demand. The industry body, which called for ZEV Mandate reform last month, is urging the government to revise the targets down to better reflect demand, with full flexibilities throughout the regulation.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: "Higher targets may force supply, but they do not create demand. The ZEV Mandate review must deliver substantive reform effective immediately to ensure we have a healthy market and an attractive pitch to investors."
SMMT also pointed to last week's Budget, which it said confirmed a new EV-specific tax, eVED, from 2028, and to proposed regulation to keep VAT on public charging at 20%. It argued these send mixed messages to consumers.
Sources
SMMTHow THRIVE sources and checks its stories · Corrections, and how to report an error
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