The numbers, 2 Nov: Diesel edges up over the month as electric vans pay back above 8,566 miles

The ratio has not moved, which is useful in itself: the running-cost case for electric vans is not swinging week to week with pump prices. We think the index works best as a screening tool. Run it against your own fleet's mileage by vehicle, and pick out the vans doing the most miles on predictable routes that return to a depot or a driver's home each night. Those are the strongest candidates.

Electric van break-even

8,566 miles (a year). Above this, fuel savings cover an electric van's list-price premium after the van grant, spread over four years. At 18,000 miles a year it saves £2,837. See the data.

Many working vans will clear this mileage, so on fuel alone the premium looks recoverable within a typical four-year cycle. The figure rests on the savings in the index, though, and those depend on cheap home or depot charging. Before committing, we would model your own charging mix, lease terms and expected resale values, and ask suppliers to quote whole-life cost rather than list price. Low-mileage vans may be better left as they are for now.

Public rapid charging

79p/kWh (3.0× home). Zapmap average for September, against 26.3p under the household price cap from 1 Oct. Slower public chargers average 54p. See the data.

This is where the electric case weakens. A van that relies on rapid chargers gives back much of its fuel saving, and slower public units, though cheaper, are still well above domestic rates. The sensible move is to plan for home or depot charging wherever possible and treat rapid charging as a top-up. Ofgem sets the January to March price cap on 25 Nov, so we would hold off fixing home-charging reimbursement rates until then.

Electric share of new registrations, September

Cars 28.3% · Vans 9.6%. SMMT figures. This year's ZEV mandate targets: cars 33%, vans 24%. See the data.

Cars are closer to their target than vans, which remain a long way short. That gap matters to fleet buyers because vans are where manufacturers have the most ground to make up against the mandate. We think it is worth asking leasing suppliers and dealers directly what terms they can offer on electric vans this quarter. Compare those quotes with diesel equivalents on a whole-life basis rather than treating list prices as fixed.

Advisory fuel rates, from 1 Sept

Diesel 15p to 22p. HMRC pence per mile for company car business travel, by engine size: diesel 15p, 16p, 22p. Electric 7p at home, 15p public. Next review 1 Dec. See the data.

Most fleets use these rates to reimburse company car drivers for business fuel, and the electric rates draw the same line between home and public charging seen above. Check that your expenses policy applies the right rate to each driver, particularly those claiming the public electric rate, and that diesel drivers are on the band that matches their engine. The next review is on 1 Dec, so confirm your system can update promptly.

Coming up

• 9 Nov 2026: SMMT used car sales, third quarter 2026
• 25 Nov 2026: DfT electric vehicle charging infrastructure statistics
• 25 Nov 2026: Ofgem announces the energy price cap for January to March 2027

How these figures are compiled

THRIVE publishes these figures every Monday from its own data tables: pump prices from DESNZ's weekly road fuel prices; the Fleet Cost Index and the break-even are THRIVE's own calculations from those pump prices and HMRC's advisory electric rates for company cars (70% home, 30% public charging), used as a proxy because there is no official electric-van rate, with the break-even using manufacturer list prices less the van grant; public charging prices from Zapmap's charging price index and the household rate from Ofgem's price cap; registration shares from SMMT's monthly figures; advisory fuel rates from HMRC. Each figure is shown only while it is current; one whose source has not published a new release in time is left out rather than shown out of date. The full series are in THRIVE data.