The numbers, 19 Oct: Diesel reaches 200p a litre after a 9.3p rise in four weeks

The ratio barely moved this week, but it is the comparison that matters when building a whole-life cost case. On these figures an electric van costs well under half as much to fuel per mile. That electric figure depends heavily on how the van is charged, however. The sensible move is to model your own mix of home, depot and public charging before putting this gap in front of a finance director.

Electric van break-even

8,512 miles (a year). Above this, fuel savings cover an electric van's list-price premium. At 18,000 miles a year it saves £2,855. See the data.

Plenty of vans in regular daily use will clear this mileage, which makes the premium easier to justify than many fleets assume. The comparison is fuel against list price only. Insurance, residual values, payload and charger installation sit outside it. We think fleets should pull actual annual mileages from telematics, identify the vans comfortably above the line and ask leasing suppliers to quote on those first.

Public rapid charging

79p/kWh (3.0× home). Zapmap average for September, against 26.3p under the household price cap from 1 Oct. Slower public chargers average 54p. See the data.

This is the figure that can undo the electric case. A van that relies on public rapid chargers gives back much of its fuel advantage. Slower public chargers are cheaper but still well above home rates. The sensible move is to establish where vans actually park overnight, price home or depot charging for the drivers who can use it, and ask charge point operators about fleet tariffs rather than paying ad hoc rates.

Electric share of new registrations, September

Cars 28.3% · Vans 9.6%. SMMT figures. This year's ZEV mandate targets: cars 33%, vans 24%. See the data.

Vans sit much further below their mandate target than cars do. That gap matters to buyers. Manufacturers short of their targets may have reason to price electric vans keenly, though we would not bank on it. We think fleets planning replacements should ask suppliers now what terms they can offer on electric vans for the rest of this year and for orders running into 2027. Anyone wishing to respond to the mandate review consultation should do so before it closes on 23 Oct.

Advisory fuel rates, from 1 Sept

Diesel 15p to 22p. HMRC pence per mile for company car business travel, by engine size: diesel 15p, 16p, 22p. Electric 7p at home, 15p public. Next review 1 Dec. See the data.

These rates were set before diesel's latest climb. Drivers claiming business mileage at the diesel rate may be out of pocket until the next review on 1 Dec. We think fleets should check whether reimbursement now falls short of actual cost. If it does, consider paying a higher rate that can be evidenced to HMRC. For electric company cars the public rate is more than double the home rate, so record where drivers charge and reimburse accordingly.

Coming up

• 23 Oct 2026: ZEV mandate review consultation closes
• 1 Dec 2026: HMRC advisory fuel rates change
• 1 Jan 2027: ZEV mandate 2027 targets apply

How these figures are compiled

THRIVE publishes these figures every Monday from its own data tables: pump prices from DESNZ's weekly road fuel prices; the Fleet Cost Index and the break-even are THRIVE's own calculations from those pump prices and HMRC's advisory electric rates for company cars (70% home, 30% public charging), used as a proxy because there is no official electric-van rate, with the break-even using manufacturer list prices less the van grant; public charging prices from Zapmap's charging price index and the household rate from Ofgem's price cap; registration shares from SMMT's monthly figures; advisory fuel rates from HMRC. Each figure is shown only while it is current; one whose source has not published a new release in time is left out rather than shown out of date. The full series are in THRIVE data.