BVRLA: UK leasing fleet hits record 2.14 million vehicles as car demand surges and vans stagnate
BVRLA's Q2 2026 Leasing Outlook shows the car fleet up 12.8% year-on-year on booming private and salary sacrifice demand, while the leased van fleet slipped 0.4% as businesses extend contracts amid higher replacement costs.
The UK vehicle lease fleet has reached a record 2,144,743 vehicles, according to the BVRLA's Leasing Outlook report for Q2 2026, as reported by Van Fleet World. The overall fleet grew 9.6% year-on-year, but the headline figure masks a sharp divergence between cars and vans.
The leased car fleet increased 12.8% year-on-year to 1,671,318 vehicles, adding around 190,000 cars over the previous 12 months, driven by strong growth among private drivers and the continued expansion of salary sacrifice schemes. The leased van fleet, by contrast, fell by 0.4% to 473,425 vehicles, with businesses continuing to extend existing contracts amid higher replacement costs and uncertainty over future demand.
Consumer car finance across the BVRLA fleet grew 32.4% year-on-year, covering Personal Contract Hire (PCH) and salary sacrifice, compared with 4.5% growth in business car finance covering Business Contract Hire, finance lease and fleet management. PCH grew 19.6% to 285,469 cars after a period of sustained contraction, while salary sacrifice rose 51% year-on-year.
Battery electric cars now account for 49% of the entire BVRLA lease fleet, with average new additions to the BCH fleet emitting 37.1g/km CO2. BEVs make up more than 90% of many leasing companies' BCH orders and almost 100% of salary sacrifice cars, but only 23% of the PCH market.
Toby Poston, chief executive of the BVRLA, said: "That growth is encouraging, but there are some important contrasts underneath it. Vans remain under pressure and leasing companies are still absorbing significant residual value losses on electric vehicles. With the ZEV mandate under review and future company car tax rates still to be confirmed, greater certainty would give businesses and drivers more confidence to make longer-term decisions."
BVRLA members forecast the total leased car and van fleet to grow a further 4% between Q2 2026 and Q2 2027, reaching more than 2.22 million vehicles, with the BEV car fleet expected to grow 12% to almost 930,000 vehicles over the same period.
Members recorded a confidence score of +60% for fleet growth but -50% for future margins, reflecting weak economic growth, intense competition and continued investment requirements. Maintenance inclusion also fell: the proportion of new BCH car agreements including maintenance dropped 6% year-on-year to 66.5%, while maintenance inclusion in new PCH agreements fell 23% to just 20.8%.
The October 2026 report also examines the ZEV mandate review, aftersales support for new vehicle manufacturers, and new evidence on the long-term durability of electric vehicles, with insights from Cap HPI, Fleet Assist and New AutoMotive.
Sources
Van Fleet WorldHow THRIVE sources and checks its stories · Corrections, and how to report an error
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